An article providing a broad overview of the territory being explored at Beyond this Brief Anomaly has just has just been published in the Journal of Futures Studies (JFS):
The journal is open access—click on the link above to open the pdf version on the JFS website. The article is part of a special issue of JFS comprising contributions from the Australasian Node of the Millennium Project for the 2011 State of the Future Report. Other articles from colleagues in the Australian futures and foresight practitioner community are available here.
Publication of this issue of the journal was a little delayed; it turns out though that the timing is quite serendipitous—the article acts as both a reasonable summary of some of the territory we’ve covered recently, and an introduction to the areas into which the inquiry will be heading shortly.
Just to put the article into its original context, it is specifically intended as a response to the nature of the Millennium Project’s coverage of its Challenge 13: Energy. The 2010 summary report on this challenge to which the response is specifically directed has since been replaced by the 2011 summary. This is updated on an annual basis in line with the report, and so by the time you’re reading this, it may be different again. Suffice to say, though, that to date, the observations and recommendations that I make in the article are not reflected in any way in those changes, and so it’s pretty likely that my response would apply to whatever the current version is on the Millennium Project website. And yes, I appreciate the implications of this for the article’s fitness-for-purpose as a contribution to the Millennium Project! Still, I did have a bigger picture in mind than writing just for that forum—if you’re reading this now, then you’re part of the process of sketching out that picture in more detail. (I understand also that all submissions from the Australasian Node are included in full on the CD that accompanied the 2011 Report).
I’d welcome any comments or feedback.
The Millennium Project poses the question “How can growing energy demand be met safely and efficiently?” From a perspective grounded in critical and epistemological futures inquiry, this subsumes three further questions: 1) what is the nature of our changing energy demand; 2) what might it mean to meet this ‘safely’; and 3) what might it mean to meet our demand ‘efficiently’? These issues must be grappled with if we wish to address the framing question comprehensively. This leads beyond an instrumental approach to our energetic challenges focused on energy sources and conversion technologies, by sweeping these within a higher-order approach based on developing the institutions through which we mediate between human aspirations and energy use. From this institutional viewpoint, we may well serve our collective interests better by making the design principles of safety and efficiency subsidiary to those of resilience and sufficiency.
Millennium project, state of the future, energy demand, energy use, epistemological futures study, contradictory certainties, participatory process, institutional development, World Energy Outlook, unconventional gas, peak oil, EROI, resilience, sufficiency, efficiency, rebound effect, environmental benignity.